The NC Employment Security Commission recently released employment data for the state covering the month of October 2008 - and the news is grim. Over 10,000 jobs have been lost in the region since January, with one-fourth of those losses coming in the last month alone. Unemployment stands at 7.0% for the state compared to 6.5% for the nation. The national rate has continued to worsen, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increasing to 6.7% for November. In terms of regions within North Carolina, the hardest hit is the Charlotte area with October unemployment rates near 7.3%, compared to 6.5% for western North Carolina. Raleigh and the Research Triangle seem to be the least affected, posting a 5.6% unemployment rate for the same time period.

From the perspective of our region, it is particularly interesting to see the way in which individual counties in western NC are being affected - the job losses are not hitting each of the 23 counties equally; there is a tremendous amount of county-specific variation.

County-Specific Variation in Unemployment:

As we examine the recent unemployment data in more detail, we can see that since January of 2008, the number of unemployed in western North Carolina has grown by about 18%. As for the variation at the county level, we see three broad categories:

Counties Significantly Over the Regional Average:

• McDowell: a 60.28% increase in the number of unemployed (percent increase Jan '08 through Oct '08).
• Rutherford: a 49.03% increase in the number of unemployed.
• Henderson: a 36.93% increase in the number of unemployed.
• Wilkes: a 34.51% increase in the number of unemployed.
• Polk: a 30.79% increase in the number of unemployed.

• Transylvania: a 24.57% increase.
• Cherokee: a 24.13% increase.
• Caldwell: a 22.30% increase.
• Burke: a 21.01% increase.
• Clay: a 20.86% increase.
• Buncombe: a 14.30% increase.
• Ashe: a 12.59% increase.

Counties Signifigantly Under the Regional Average:

• Yancey: a 7.65% increase.
• Macon: a 3.88% increase.
• Avery: a 2.63% increase.
• Alleghany: a 2.36% increase.
• Watauga: a 2.04% increase.
• Haywood: a 0.91% increase
• Graham: a 0.87% increase.
• Madison: a 0.57% increase.
• Mitchell: a 5.42% decrease.
• Jackson: a 9.94% decrease.
• Swain: a 45.33% decrease.

So while McDowell, Rutherford and Henderson counties have seen their number of unemployed grow by almost 50% in the last year; Mitchell, Jackson and Swain counties have actually added jobs since January (the starting point for our current recession).

What can account for these variations?

1. Small Workforces Lead to Disproportionate Effects: in counties like Swain, Graham or Madison where the total labor force is less than 10,000 people - the actions of one or two large employers can have tremendous effects. This is certainly the case in Swain where much of that counties variation can be explained by the continuing expansion of the nearby Eastern Band gaming operations. However, it should be noted that the three counties with the largest increases in the number of unemployed are also counties with relatively large workforces.
2. Certain Industries Are Being Impacted More Than Others: preliminary indications are that manufacturing; construction and government sectors are taking the largest initial "hits" in terms of job loss. This may explain some of the variation in McDowell county which continues to see declines in manufacturing and textile firms - most recently, the closing of Swift Galey and the loss of several hundred jobs.
3. This May Be Part of a Longer Trend: while the curent recession is a new factor, some counties in the region have been facing employment declines due to long-term trends involving import competition and outsourcing (see chart below).

LINKS:

• NC Employment Security Commission
  
• Bureau of Labor Statistics

DATA SETS (download then open in Excel):

• Employment by County (Jan '08 to Oct '08)
• Employment by NC Region (Jan '08 to Oct '08)
• Historical Employment Rates in WNC (2000 to 2007)

DOCUMENTS:

• Announced Closings and Layoffs (2008)